09 / How prices are set
Why everyone costs what they cost
Every price on this board came from somewhere you can go and check. Here is the whole method, from the sources to the bands to the tight end adjustment, and every change since the board locked.
01
Where the prices come from
Nobody here decides what a player is worth. The board is built from 3 public sources, weighted equally, and then converted to prices. You can check every one of them yourself.
- FantasyPros expert consensus
- A ranking rather than a market. It anchors the board when the public is chasing a name.
- ESPN average draft position
- The largest casual pool, so it reads closest to how most people actually draft.
- Sleeper average draft position
- The youngest and most reactive pool. It moves on news first.
02
Why all 3 count the same
There is no evidence that one draft market predicts a season better than another, so picking a favorite would be a guess dressed up as a method. Equal weight is the honest default. If a season of real scoring shows one source reads this game better, that is the point to change it, and we will say so when we do.
- Ranks, not raw numbers
- A consensus rank and a draft position are different scales, so averaging them directly would let one source drag the top of the board around. Each source is turned into its own ranking first, and the rankings are averaged.
- A missing player is not a penalty
- If only 2 of the 3 list someone, he is averaged over those 2. Being absent from one source is a fact about that source, not about the player.
03
What a player costs
Blended rank becomes a price through 5 bands. Inside a band the price slides smoothly, so the 13th ranked player is not the same price as the 32nd. Prices have a $4.0 floor and no ceiling.
- Elite
- The top 12. $14.0 to $17.0.
- Tier 1
- Ranks 13 to 32. $11.0 to $13.5.
- Tier 2
- Ranks 33 to 60. $8.0 to $10.5.
- Tier 3
- Ranks 61 to 100. $5.0 to $7.5.
- Replacement
- Everyone else. $4.0 to $4.9.
04
The tight end adjustment
Tight ends score 1.5 a catch here, and everyone else scores 1.0. No public draft board prices that, because no public draft board is scoring this game. So tight ends arrive on the board cheaper than they are worth, and we correct for it on purpose.
- What we measured
- Across the 2023, 2024 and 2025 seasons, the tight end premium is worth about 21% more points to a rostered tight end. That holds for the elite ones and the streamers alike.
- What we applied
- A 15% bump, not 21%. Pricing the edge away completely would remove a real decision from the game. This leaves some of it on the board for whoever works it out.
05
When a price changes before kickoff
Once the board locks it mostly stays put, because drafting against prices that move under you is not a game. Between the lock and kickoff a price only changes for 4 reasons, and every change is written down.
- Season ending injury
- A top 50 player is out for the year. He drops to replacement level.
- Starter promotion
- A backup is confirmed into a starting job. He rises to what that job is worth.
- Trade
- Both ends get looked at, and so do the teammates whose roles just changed.
- Something else
- Rare, and it has to be written down like the rest. If this one starts showing up often, the protocol has stopped meaning anything and you should hold us to that.
- Never for
- A questionable tag, a podcast run, a good practice report, or a player drifting a few places in the rankings. None of those move a price.
06
Every change, since the lock
No prices have changed since the board locked. That is the normal state. Every change that does happen shows up here with the reason.